Global Economic Slowdown, How Likely is the World to Fall In

Prospects for global economic growth face challenges including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, interest rate hikes to curb inflation, and the effects of the pandemic, such as China's lockdown and disruption of supply chains.

In turn, our latest World Economic Outlook, released last month, has lowered our global growth forecast for next year to 2.7 percent, and we expect global output to contract by more than a third during this year or next. , Furthermore, as we discuss in our latest report designed for the Group of Twenty, recent high-frequency indicators confirm that the outlook is gloomy.

As the week's chart shows, purchasing managers' indices tracking a range of G20 economies have declined steadily in recent months. These survey-based measures gauge the pace of manufacturing and service activity.
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